India’s fertility rate is steadily declining, prompting concern from the United Nations. According to the 2025 “State of World Population” report released by the UN Population Fund (UNFPA), the average fertility rate in India now ranges between 1.9 and 2.0, which is below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population over time.
Currently, India's population is estimated at around 1.463 billion. While projections suggest it could rise to nearly 1.7 billion in the coming decades, experts warn that the population may begin to decline in the long term due to falling birth rates.
Key Drivers of the Decline
Several socio-economic factors are contributing to the decline in fertility:
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Increased urbanization and higher levels of education
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Greater workforce participation among women
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Delayed marriages and family planning preferences
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Rising cost of living and child-rearing responsibilities
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A shift in cultural attitudes toward smaller families
This trend is more noticeable in urban areas and among middle- and upper-income groups.
UNFPA’s Emphasis on Reproductive Autonomy
Rather than focusing solely on population numbers, the UNFPA stresses the importance of reproductive freedom—ensuring individuals and couples have the right and means to decide freely and responsibly the number and spacing of their children. The report highlights that choices regarding childbirth should not be influenced by economic pressure, societal expectations, or policy coercion.
What It Means for the Future
While a lower fertility rate may seem positive in a country with a large population, it brings long-term challenges. These include:
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A shrinking working-age population
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An increasing elderly population requiring care and support
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Potential strain on pension, healthcare, and social systems
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Economic slowdowns due to labor shortages
At a Glance
| Indicator | Status |
|---|---|
| Current Population | ~1.46 billion |
| Average Fertility Rate | 1.9–2.0 |
| Replacement Level | 2.1 |
| UN Focus | Reproductive rights and autonomy |
| Long-Term Risks | Aging population, workforce decline, rising social costs |
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